By Scott Hamilton
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 5, 2023, © Leeham News: Embraer officials see the pilot shortage easing in 2025 or 2026.
Francisco Gomes Netos, CEO of the Embraer group, said during a media briefing last month that the “situation” is getting better. Boeing, in its latest 20-year forecast, reported that 649,000 pilots will be needed globally over the next 20 years.
With a wave of pilot retirements, especially in the US, coming in the next few years, the shortage and demand seem daunting.
“In our internal market intelligence, I would say that the situation should be much better in 2025 and 2026. We see the situation improving,” Gomes said.
The biggest impact of the pilot shortage was on the 50-seat regional jet, CFO Antonios Carlos Garcia said. The majors want 76-seat aircraft.
Orders for Embraer’s E-Jet E2 have been slow. Because the E175-E2 exceeds the weight limit in the labor contracts, known as Scope Clauses, this model isn’t sold in the US, the biggest market for the 76-seat aircraft, and for Embraer.
The E190-E2 is an “in-between” aircraft that isn’t selected by many customers. The largest of the family, the E195-E2, has a backlog of a few hundred aircraft. But Embraer hasn’t been winning orders of the magnitude Airbus and Boeing are winning.
Gomes believes the E2’s day is coming. “It’s coming, the wave to focus on our segment.”
Need to sell 700 aircraft
“We are in a good situation,” Gomes said. Embraer has a goal of $10bn in commercial sales. “We need to sell 700 aircraft. Compared to the opportunities we see in the market, if we win, between 20 and 25 percent of the opportunities, we will get that.”
Gomes believes Embraer could sell more, but the widely publicized issues with the engine—the P&W GTF—is an inhibitor.
“We are working very closely with Pratt & Whitney to make sure that we plan our production according to their capacity. Some customers, because of the issues, they are postponing the new orders,” he said.
The E-2s are suffering less with engine issues. “The E-2s arrived later in the market with a more mature configuration of the engines, already with a lot of improvements.”
Defense
On the Defense side, Embraer is beginning to gain traction with the C/KC-390 after hot-and-cold support from the Brazilian government. Orders have been placed by NATO countries. India issued an RFP for 80 aircraft.
Officials also are exploring offering the C-390 as a civilian cargo airplane. But right now, focus is on increasing sales before diverging into a new market.
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