Let’s have a look at what we all know concerning the UK’s flights over Gaza, what we are able to inform from them, what has been claimed, and what they may sign about UK-Israel relations.
For the reason that Oct. 7, 2023 assault by Hamas towards Israel, and Israel’s subsequent army response in Gaza, the UK’s Royal Air Drive has stored a detailed eye on ongoing occasions utilizing RAF Akrotiri-based Shadow plane. The Shadow, primarily based on the Beechcraft B350, carries electro-optical/infrared sensors, in addition to communications and electronics intelligence gathering tools. In the direction of the top of July, the Shadow fleet at Akrotiri was diminished and a few sorties taken over by privately contracted plane. For the needs of this text, all references to the flights embrace each RAF and contracted missions.
As testimonials of battle crimes are offered earlier than the United Nations for assessment, the intelligence sorties – which might typically be tracked publicly on web sites like Flightradar24 – have change into a regularly used instance of the UK offering help to Israeli operations.
The UK Authorities maintains that these missions are tasked with finding remaining hostages inside Gaza, with the data circulate to Israel itself strictly managed. Most probably, along with this, the Shadows have collected info on Israeli operations themselves for the aim of offering useful and correct intelligence again to senior officers within the UK, fairly than counting on third events. Importantly, the intelligence gathered may be utilised within the UK’s assessments of battle crime allegations, and will produce essential proof in both proving or disproving circumstances.
Nevertheless, some have brazenly said as a matter of incontrovertible fact that the uncooked knowledge gathered by these plane is being offered in actual time to Israeli forces. Whereas dialogue of – and, certainly, questioning of – these missions within the public realm ought to be welcomed, from a freedom of speech, perception, and dialogue perspective, it will appear that the allegations are being made with out full understanding of aviation and intelligence operations each previous and current. On the entire, the concept the RAF’s flights are feeding their knowledge immediately into Israel’s palms is unlikely. That is for numerous causes, which might be elaborated upon under.
Intelligence Gathering Doctrine – A Transient Perception
The UK, in addition to the U.S., and by extension Australia, New Zealand, and Canada as 5 Eyes member states, has taken the agency place because the finish of the Second World Struggle that if intelligence is there to gather then it have to be collected. Even for conflicts indirectly involving these powers, harnessing this intelligence may be vital to understanding the strategic, financial, and political ramifications of world occasions.
There have been frequent battles between army and intelligence forces and the governments of their day relating to the precise nature of intelligence sharing between them. Governments all the time need the newest produce, however those that acquire and course of intelligence lean in the direction of warning, preferring to solely share correctly constructed intelligence merchandise – analysed, interpreted, and assessed extensively for accuracy, typically utilizing ‘purple group’ methodologies.
For that reason alone, the output of uncooked knowledge gathered by UK plane is more likely to comply with a really restricted and well-constructed path, beginning with intelligence analysts within the Royal Air Drive. Additional up the chain, Defence Intelligence, primarily based at RAF Wyton, is chargeable for all intelligence gathering inside the Ministry of Defence, reporting in flip to the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC). On the JIC, Defence Intelligence convenes with the Safety Service (MI5), Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), and Authorities Communications Headquarters (GCHQ) to behave as an interagency intelligence assessor and overseer.
The JIC is the physique chargeable for delivering intelligence to the Authorities. Solely on the highest ranges – doubtless the Prime Minister and/or the Overseas Secretary – may the precise nature of the UK’s intelligence sharing with Israel be determined upon. Data on sure matters – an impending terrorist assault, or the precise location of a hostage – may be allowed to be shared below a delegated settlement, which may have been negotiated with Israel in return for freedom to function in Gazan airspace unrestricted – however something contentious would doubtless require ministerial approval.
In reality, the only technique of journey for intelligence knowledge produced by the UK going to Israel could be by the USA. As 5 Eyes (FVEY) companions, and the 2 core signatories of the nonetheless categorised UKUSA Settlement, the intelligence companies of those two nations are virtually inextricably intertwined to the purpose that even Presidential decrees to chop intelligence sharing throughout tense relations weren’t utterly efficient. The GCHQ station in Cyprus is without doubt one of the UK’s most vital intelligence gathering outposts, hoovering up communications and digital emissions all through the Center East.
Many GCHQ services are staffed at the side of the U.S. Nationwide Safety Company (NSA), and so intelligence collected at these services is, at the least traditionally, identified to be concurrently accessible throughout the FVEY alliance. It might, due to this fact, be inside the energy of the U.S. to then feed the info by to Israel.
Intelligence sharing with Israel has, in truth, been one of many greatest causes of historic friction inside FVEY. British Prime Minister Edward Heath, who positioned the UK as a impartial get together within the 1973 Arab-Israeli Yom Kippur battle, objected to the potential provision of aerial imagery captured by UK-based SR-71 Blackbirds to Israel. In response, the U.S. Air Drive mounted a number of direct sorties from the USA, chaining the SR-71’s mammoth flight along with the specially-adapted KC-135Q Stratotanker tankers.
Israel’s Intelligence Capabilities
Whereas we all know that the U.S. and UK have a rare capability for intelligence gathering, the fact is that Israel can also be one of many world’s intelligence powerhouses. GCHQ is understood to have intently co-operated with Israeli intelligence companies – although, it must also be famous that Israel itself has been a goal of UK (and U.S.) spying.
As a producer of well-equipped unmanned plane, in addition to a wide selection of intelligence gathering methods and electronics, Israel is already effectively positioned to gather no matter intelligence it needs over Gaza. Whereas the geopolitical reliance on the USA is tough to flee from, Israel has positioned itself effectively for holding out by itself with sovereign capabilities which can be impartial of exterior affect. To place it merely – there may be little that may be collected by RAF Shadows or contractors over Gaza that isn’t already inside the attain of the Israeli army or safety providers. The query, due to this fact, is, why would Israel be counting on this intelligence knowledge – particularly whereas the UK is reportedly thought-about an ‘unreliable’ ally?
The IDF has been protecting a detailed watch on Sinai and Gaza shoreline for hours until now. Three G550 SIGINT/AEW&C plane have taken off, with two of them actively flying off Gaza and Egypt’s Sinai. They’re being escorted by a Boeing 707 tanker for refueling help. pic.twitter.com/PEtEVkATfd
— Egypt’s Intel Observer (@EGYOSINT) April 27, 2025
Moreover, as talked about above, Israel would additionally have the ability to firstly depend on intelligence stories from the USA, who stay a detailed ally. Whereas U.S. flights are not often tracked on public web sites, it’s identified that MQ-9 Reapers from Sigonella have flown sorties over Gaza and sure proceed to take action along with different plane in addition to satellites. Area capabilities are the place Israel considerably falls brief, with geographic constraints limiting the nation’s means to ship increased payloads into orbit, although given the regional focus of its operations it’s an space of decrease significance in comparison with the U.S.
Earlier right this moment, a drone that was tracked from a place off the coast of Crete loitered over Gaza for just below 3 hours.
What wasn’t seen on flight trackers had been two MQ-9A Prolonged Vary Reaper drones additionally within the space: REMIX22 & REMIX55 from NAS Sigonella. #ADSB #E9D001 1/2 pic.twitter.com/rbN4etxf4F
— Amelia Smith (@ameliairheart) October 29, 2023
Transponder Tales
A working theme in stories of the UK’s intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) mission over Gaza is that the plane, monitoring on web sites like Flightradar24, are ‘not meant to be seen’. Commentary alleges that pilots have forgotten to show off their transponders, by chance revealing to the world what they’re as much as.
Whereas there are actually circumstances the place transponders have been energetic and transmitting on public modes in conditions the place, normally, they wouldn’t be, the constant look of those plane on-line is an virtually sure indication that flying with the transponder enabled and never in a degraded mode is customary working process.
Transponders are generally misunderstood even by these thought-about to be seasoned ‘flight trackers’. On many events the place plane are alleged to have flown with their transponder “off”, in actuality you’ll discover this to not be the case. Monitoring websites, like Flightradar24, ADS-B Trade, Planefinder and the like, rely largely on transponders broadcasting ADS-B or Mode S as a way to show them on a map. Within the case of ADS-B, the plane transmits its GPS location – for Mode S, with no positional knowledge, the plane have to be situated utilizing multilateration with a number of receivers.
Nevertheless, these are usually not the one transponder modes, and really regularly army plane will fly utilizing Mode 3. Mode 3, identified within the civilian world as Mode A/C, responds to interrogation by secondary surveillance radars (SSRs) with an plane’s altitude and squawk code. No positional knowledge is transmitted, nor any figuring out knowledge like an ICAO handle. It’s theoretically doable to trace Mode 3 solely plane as a civilian, and a few providers are experimenting with this, however it isn’t a widespread or utterly foolproof course of.
For air visitors controllers, the plane can seem on their show as common, utilizing the ‘actual’ main radar to help with positional knowledge. There are additionally army solely modes, together with cryptographically secured variations of Mode S and ADS-B. If a army plane, just like the Shadow, wished to cover its place, it will – and so they have completed so up to now.
Conclusion
None of us within the civilian area know for certain how a lot info is flowing from the RAF’s flights to Israel’s intelligence assessments, however utilizing the above we are able to doubtless low cost most of the extra dramatic claims which have been making the rounds on-line.
That’s not to say that official traces ought to all the time be taken at face worth, however equally the claims of social media speaking heads must also be examined very intently. In reality, I’d encourage everybody to reality test this text itself. Each effort has been made to be as matter-of-fact and logical as doable, however advanced topics breed advanced tales.
As is the character of the intelligence enterprise, it would in all probability be many years earlier than any actual perception into the day by day operations we are able to view in our browser home windows can come to mild – if it ever does in any respect.
