Whereas the authenticity of the footage stays unconfirmed, the video seems to indicate the engagement at shut vary through the Mar. 2 incident. We break down how such a blue-on-blue might happen.
As already reported, in line with unofficial stories, a Kuwait Air Power F/A-18 Hornet was accountable for the downing of three U.S. Air Power F-15E Strike Eagle in a reasonably uncommon pleasant hearth incident on Mar. 2, 2026.
Whether or not the Kuwaiti pilot intentionally engaged the U.S. plane or the incident was the results of a collection of contributing components/mistake stays unclear. Nevertheless a footage circulating on-line appears to counsel the Hornet pilot engaged at the least one F-15E WVR (Inside Visible Vary).
The authenticity of the footage has not but been confirmed however, if real, it might seem to color a distinct situation, during which the Hornet pilot intentionally shot down plane that, given the very brief distances concerned, might possible have been visually recognized.
Kuwaiti F-18 🇰🇼 Engaged USAF F-15 🇺🇸 with within the visible vary and shot it down.
The shortage of integration might have been the explanation however capturing down a pleasant with in visible vary is simply absurd.
What was the pilot pondering? 🤯 pic.twitter.com/kLDM44J9kj
— Black__Bird (@Blaxk__Bird) March 6, 2026
Anyway, whereas we watch for an official investigation to find out the foundation reason for the incident, the emergence of the video gives a possibility for additional commentary on the pleasant hearth occasion.
Initially, regardless of the rationalization, we can’t assist however say it’s a unusual occasion. When operations like this are performed, there are management procedures in place, often called airspace management measures, together with an Airspace Management Plan, which defines how plane enter and exit the “battlespace.”
It’s uncommon additionally as a result of allied plane have been flying over Kuwait for many years. It’s not clear whether or not the plane concerned have been built-in into the Hyperlink 16 community (which appears unlikely), which IFF modes have been getting used, or whether or not the CAOC had full consciousness of the belongings airborne at the moment in phrases. There must be an ATO (Air Tasking Order) indicating who’s flying and doing what.
It is usually unclear what degree of integration exists between the coalition and the air protection forces of the international locations concerned, together with Kuwait.
In easy phrases, there are a lot of variables at play in making an attempt to know what might have brought on this blue-on-blue incident. That being stated, in a very aggravating state of affairs, with many kamikaze drones and missile to intercept, there may be all the time the danger that the Kuwaiti Air Power Hornet pilot might have misidentified the plane, believing them to be hostile.
We must always not neglect that two Iranian Su-24s have been reportedly shot down by a Qatari Emiri Air Power F-15QA, which means there’s some residual IRIAF (Islamic Republic of Iran Air Power) plane nonetheless flying and probably threatening Gulf states.
The American pilots have been probably in a comparatively relaxed posture, returning to base after a mission and recovering from the stress of the sortie. In consequence, they have been most likely much less centered on detecting doable threats within the sky, particularly since they have been already working inside what they believed to be pleasant airspace.
From the interceptor standpoint, there are established standards for identification and engagement. As soon as a contact is recognized, the Guidelines of Engagement decide whether or not it may be engaged.
For sure, earlier than partaking a goal, it should first be correctly recognized. Because of this, the likelihood stays that the Kuwaiti pilot might have dedicated an identification error, a major one, even a outstanding one, particularly contemplating the gap at which the engagement seems to have occurred, at the least primarily based on the video that surfaced on social media immediately.
Through the first days of a battle, the extent of coordination is all the time decrease. Coalitions are usually not actually that coordinate with all events working roughly autonomously (that is one thing we noticed through the Libya Air Warfare in 2011, as an illustration). The difficulty possible lies someplace within the information-sharing standards, the detection-identification-engagement chain, or the RoE themselves. The error should have occurred someplace alongside that chain.
Nevertheless, in gentle of the video, whether or not it’s genuine or not, we can’t even utterly rule out the potential for a deliberate act by a rogue pilot or a distracted one. The investigation will ultimately discover out.
