Hi there All,
4 Boeing plane variants have been lingering within the certification course of for for much longer than envisioned: the 737-7, 737-10, 777-9, and 777-8F. Neither the 737 MAX nor the 777X is predicted to obtain FAA certification this yr. On this transient weblog submit, we talk about why two variants matter way more than the others.
Returning to a extra balanced scenario within the single aisle market
Nominally, Airbus overwhelmingly dominates the single-aisle order books, with 7,166 A320neo and 499 A220 orders versus 4,817 737 MAX orders as of August 2025 (Embraer has barely greater than 200 excellent E-Jet E2 orders).
As soon as trying on the phase degree by separating between the small and medium (from E190-E2 to the 737-8) and the massive (737-9, 737-10, and A321neo), the scenario is extra nuanced.
Airbus has a complete of two,342 A220-100, A220-300, A319neo, and A320neo orders mixed. Boeing has a complete of three,363 737-7, 737-8, and 737-8200 orders. The American OEM has a 59% relative market share within the smaller single-aisle phase. The 737-8 is extra widespread with airways than any of the smaller Airbus variants.
Boeing’s drawback lies within the massive single-aisle phase: 5,323 A321neo orders vs. 1,454 for the 737-9 and 737-10 mixed. The 737-9 just isn’t widespread with airways, who’re ready for the 737-10 certification to resume their fleets. Till the 737-10 is licensed, Boeing will hold bleeding market share in the preferred single-aisle phase.
Regardless of its subject efficiency and vary shortcomings in opposition to the A321neo, the 737-10 economics are aggressive in opposition to the A321neo. This weblog expects many new 737-10 orders (and conversions from smaller variants) as soon as it’s lastly licensed. The certification may even considerably enhance Boeing’s money circulation technology.
The 737-7 has 309 orders. Most of these orders are with Southwest Airways. Within the massive scheme of issues, the variant doesn’t matter apart from not upsetting considered one of Boeing’s most necessary clients.
Cease hemorrhaging twin-aisle money
The 777X certification is on observe to be six years behind the unique schedule. The delay has already incurred greater than $10bn in extra prices and losses on this system. There’s additionally greater than $7.5bn of plane stock and tooling on Boeing’s stability sheet that drains the OEM’s money flows. Boeing already has 30 777-9s in stock, with extra anticipated till the variant’s certification.
Apart from relieving airways which have needed to cope with a half-decade delay, delivering these 777-9s will unlock money flows which are important for Boeing’s long-term sustainability and talent to repay debt and spend money on new applications.
Boeing has a commanding market share lead within the twin-aisle passenger market throughout all segments (57% within the A330neo/787/A350-900 phase, and 66% for the A350-1000/777X). It implies that delays aren’t as problematic for the OEM’s standing within the twin-aisle market.
The 777-8F entry into service has been delayed to 2028. Given Boeing’s even increased dominance within the massive freighter market and decrease supply tallies, it’s much less problematic.
Conclusion
Boeing’s missteps and elevated regulatory scrutiny in recent times imply that its Industrial Airplanes division is much from its full potential. Money circulation technology is not going to enhance considerably till each the 737-10 and 777-9 are licensed and deliveries can lastly begin.
Till then, Airbus (with none main vendor awaiting certification) will comfortably lead deliveries, income technology, and the single-aisle market. Lastly, Boeing can’t critically take into account launching a brand new airplane program.
