Summary
- United Airlines has added three brand-new routes, of which Tokyo Narita to Cebu is perhaps the most notable.
- In 2023, 630 passengers daily flew US-Cebu-US, with United tapping that market with its lower-risk and less expensive route from Japan.
- The carrier may have non-stop US-Cebu flights one day if it does well.
United is set to begin flying from Newark to Marrakech, which will become the Moroccan city’s first US route; Houston-Medellin, the Texas hub’s second destination in Colombia since Cali was cut in 2008; and Tokyo Narita to Cebu.
The latter is particularly exciting because United’s intra-Asian operation from Tokyo (inherited from Pan Am) ended in 2017. Of course, it has prioritized non-stops from the mainland, helped by relatively small but highly efficient twinjets with long ranges. Its Tokyo crew base closed in 2020.
Network Expansion: United Airlines Adds Flights To Marrakesh, Cebu, & Medellin
This will mark Marrakesh’s first-ever direct connection to the United States.
United: Tokyo to Cebu
Beginning on July 31, the 2,033-mile (3,271 km) route is highly intriguing. It will use Guam-based Boeing 737-800s and crew. However, Narita-Cebu-Narita will not be tagged with Guam and is, in that sense, a standalone service.
Interestingly, it will share the flight numbers of United’s Los Angeles-Narita-Los Angeles services. As such, and despite using completely different aircraft and needing to change aircraft in Japan, it will be a fifth-freedom service.
This is similar to previous arrangements by United and other carriers to/from Japan for many years, ostensibly using rights granted by the country to US airlines decades ago.
Photo: Vincenzo Pace | Simple Flying
The route, which will operate daily, is scheduled as follows, with all times local:
- Tokyo Narita-Cebu: UA32, 17:25-21:35 (5h 10m block)
- Cebu-Tokyo Narita: UA33, 09:15-15:20 (5h 5m)
Why would it begin this route?
Aside from the obvious answer that it thinks it’ll do well enough financially versus alternative uses of the equipment and staff, there are various explanations. It will use freed-up Guam equipment, which will be helpful given the likely profitability problems due to the weak yen and United’s big exposure to Japan from Guam.
Cebu-US traffic is high, but the yield is low, influenced by the long distance and lower fares from less premium traffic. Consequently, serving Cebu from Tokyo gives it a one-stop US option in a less risky and expensive way than a non-stop transpacific service.
Who knows? If Cebu does well enough, United could eventually serve it non-stop using the 787-8. US DOT T-100 data shows that Philippine Airlines previously flew non-stop from Cebu to the US, with the most passengers carried in 2017.
More context is needed:
- US-Cebu has a large demand. While primarily revolving around the Filipino diaspora, it is perhaps somewhat influenced by being a growing location for outsourced call centers. Booking data show that 630 people flew Cebu-US-Cebu daily in 2023, mainly to Los Angeles, San Francisco, and NYC. The US-Philippines market has been growing well post-pandemic.
- Six of United’s US-Narita routes are timed to connect to/from Cebu. They are Denver, Guam, Houston, Los Angeles, Newark, and San Francisco. All connect easily with very competitive wait timings in both directions. It can compete in the US-Cebu one-stop market.
- It also connects with All Nippon’s US services on which United codeshares. They include Chicago O’Hare and Honolulu.
- United began San Francisco-Manila in October 2023. It must be sufficiently pleased with the results to branch out to a second city, even from within Asia.
- All Nippon doesn’t operate Narita-Cebu. Instead, it is served by AirAsia Philippines, Cebu Pacific, and Philippine Airlines. United would not step on its toes.
United Airlines Will Operate 138 Long-Haul Flights Per Day This Summer
Never has the airline had so many non-stop international flights over 3,000 miles.
United’s intra-Asia routes return
On July 31, the Star Alliance carrier will operate intra-Asian services from Japan for the first time in seven years. Examining Cirium schedules for 2004-2017 shows that United previously flew from Narita to Bangkok, Beijing Capital, Hong Kong, Seoul Incheon, Singapore, and Taipei.
What do you make of it all? Let us know in the comment section.
